Deep Interpretation of the EU-China Relationship Entering a New Phase of "Competition and Resilience" After the 2024 European Elections

The shifts in the political landscape following the 2024 European Parliament elections mark a complex period of structural adjustment in EU-China relations. The transition from the traditional "partnership" narrative to a more competitive "competition and resilience" framework is not a simple policy shift but a deep strategic reshaping driven by internal political turbulence and external geopolitical and economic pressures.

1. Strategic Uncertainty Amid Political Fragmentation The loss of centrist parties and the rise of right-wing parties in the new election results signal the erosion of consensus within the EU on China policy. This political fragmentation poses a challenge to the EU in formulating a unified strategy toward China. As businesses make cross-border decisions, they must navigate an increasingly complex regulatory environment where policy directions may fluctuate dramatically. This uncertainty demands that European companies enhance their ability to "manage cross-border risks," meaning anticipating potential regulatory scrutiny, tariff barriers, or export controls and their resulting business impacts.

2. The EU's "Competitive" Retrospection: From Dialogue to Institutionalization The tripartite relationship of "partnership, competition, and systemic competition" established in the European Council summaries of 2019 and 2023 has been deepened in the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen's emphasis on the "economic security strategy" in March 2023 and again in 2026. The European Commission is leveraging the EU's fiscal deficit issue to elevate the trade imbalance with China to the level of a "second China shock," explicitly stating its intention to use "all available tools" to rebalance the relationship. This indicates that the EU is upgrading its China relations from pure trade competition to a comprehensive competition involving industrial security and control over critical raw material supply chains.

3. Focus of Industrial Competition: Automotive and Green Transition At the specific industrial level, the contest between the EU and China is focusing on the automotive sector. China's Ministry of Commerce's attention to European domestic production, along with potential restrictions on Chinese electric vehicles in the European market (such as restrictions on plug-in hybrid vehicles), are pushing European localization capabilities and supply chain resilience to the forefront. This foreshadows a strategic shift for European automakers from purely export-oriented to a deeper entanglement with China through "localization of production and investment" to circumvent trade barriers. This is not just about market access; it is about the self-sufficiency of European industries in key technological and manufacturing stages.

4. Industrial Resilience in Response to the "Second China Shock" The core of the EU's strategy lies in responding to China's dependence on key raw materials and its potential competition for European industries. This is prompting the EU to accelerate the building of a "strategic autonomy" system, including strategic reserves of key raw materials and the establishment of new cross-regional working groups (in areas such as agriculture, artificial intelligence, and energy). The ultimate goal of these efforts is to enhance the shock-absorptive capacity of the European industrial chain, ensuring the long-term stability and strategic position of the European economy in an increasingly complex global supply chain.

In summary, following the 2024 European elections, EU-China relations have moved from past "relationship management" to a phase of "strategic reshaping."In summary, after the 2024 European elections, the EU-China relationship has moved from "relationship management" to "strategic reshaping." The future business environment will be characterized by high uncertainty, high institutionalization, and high competitiveness. Successful enterprises will be those that can flexibly respond to political fluctuations, turn policy risks into strategic opportunities, and actively position themselves in the ecosystem of in-house production and key technological innovation in Europe.