Structural Challenges in the EU's Green Transition: The Strategic Contest of Electric Vehicle Popularization and Battery Supply Chains

In the grand narrative of green transformation and clean industrialization, Europe is facing a profound structural test. From the perspective of the energy structure, the EU has made significant progress in decarbonizing the power sector, with the share of renewable energy in electricity generation continuously climbing, indicating a deep transition of the energy system towards clean energy. However, this progress in the energy sector has not fully translated into a simultaneous increase in the electrification rate of final energy consumption, revealing a key bottleneck in the transition process: the lagging transformation of the transport sector.

The pace of electrification in the transport sector is slow, posing a major obstacle to Europe's climate goals. Although the EU has set regulatory targets for zero-emission vehicles by 2035, Europe currently faces issues such as the high purchase cost of electric vehicles (EVs), imperfect charging infrastructure, and the fragmentation of charging networks across different member states. This not only affects the purchasing willingness of low- and middle-income households but also puts European car manufacturers at a disadvantage in cost competition. Furthermore, tariff policies on imported pure electric vehicle batteries from China, while aiming to protect domestic industries, may also restrict European consumers from accessing the most cost-effective clean energy products in the short term, placing Europe in a delicate balance in terms of technology and cost.

Viewing the industry chain restructuring from a perspective, Europe exhibits a "duality" in the battery manufacturing sector. While European capacity is gradually being established in electric vehicle assembly, Europe remains highly dependent on foreign entities for core battery production and key component imports. This dependence on upstream supply chains means that Europe's strategic autonomy in key clean technology areas still needs strengthening. The proposal of the EU's "Clean Industrial Deal" is precisely to address this structural risk, aiming to promote the green transformation of existing industries and the nurturing of emerging clean technologies, with the core idea being to deeply link decarbonization with economic competitiveness, thereby avoiding a green transition turning into deindustrialization for Europe.

Therefore, Europe's green strategy is not merely an environmental slogan but a profound industrial reshaping. Future success will not only depend on the stability of the regulatory framework but also on the ability to effectively reduce the cost of EVs, accelerate the popularization of charging infrastructure, and successfully build a resilient supply chain covering the entire chain from raw materials to final products, thereby ensuring structural upgrading of industry and long-term competitiveness while addressing geopolitical challenges.